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Nascar Sprint Cup Series
March 23rd Auto Racing news ... Nascar Sprint Cup Series at nascar-sprintcupseries.com
NASCAR: Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3:15 PM ET, TNT)
2021-06-19
NASCAR hits the road for the first time this weekend, or more specifically, the road course, as the Cup Series takes on the twists and turns on Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, California. Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 is the first of two-season road racing events, races that seem to be generating more and more excitement each season. Once vilified by fans of the sport for the obvious differences from the schedule’s other races, these events have become widely embraced. Competition is fierce, there is plenty of beating and banging on the track at any given time, and the presence of road course “ringers” like Boris Said and P.J. Jones offer quite a changeup from the ovals. Still, even with the added talent and varied skills needed to win these races, it’s always a series regular that leaves with the checkered flag. The driver favored to do so this week is Tony Stewart, who at 5-1, is looking for his third win at Sonoma and 8th road course triumph overall.
There are several drivers who typically run up-front at Sonoma and Watkins Glen, the two road courses, and that collective group is reflected in the odds for this week. Besides Tony Stewart at 5-1, Jeff Gordon, Juan Montoya, and Marcos Ambrose are listed at 6-1, and Kyle Busch is 7-1. No one else is in single-digits. Stewart’s average finish at the two tracks since ’07 has been 3.7 in the last six races, all Top 10 finishes, and he has led 72 laps during that span. Gordon owns the most career wins and pole positions at Infineon, with five each. He is in a bit of a road win drought though, having gone 0 for 6 in the COT races since ’07. Juan Montoya has been very impressive at this facility, owning his only ever Cup Series win plus an average finish of 4.3 in three prior starts, despite starting with an average spot of 23.3. Ambrose, like Montoya, is a former road series driver, and thus is very comfortable at tracks like Sonoma. In his five road events in Cup over the last three years, he has three Top 5’s and an average finish of 12.5. He has yet to break into the win column though. Busch is the only driver other than Stewart to win more than one road race in the last three years, and he also leads the field with 155 laps led in that time frame.
Laps led are a very good indicator at road courses, since the laps don’t click away that fast and running out front is usually reserved for the best cars. In that sense, some of the other drivers you might want to consider for Sunday as potentially strong underdogs include the following, all of whom have led at least 30 laps in the last six road course events: Robby Gordon (51), Kasey Kahne (41), Jamie McMurray (36), Denny Hamlin (36), Jimmie Johnson (33), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (33). Of the six, Hamlin would be the least surprising winner, as he is red-hot of late, leading the series with five wins in 2010, and priced at a fair 12-1. Johnson is a season low 15-1, providing a good indicator of what the experts think of his chances, at least where winning is concerned. No one else in the group is better than 20-1, with Junior actually represented in the FIELD option for wagering, which in a group of 22 other drivers, would pay 10-1.
Some of the usual contenders that have really struggled on the road have been David Reutimann (32.3 avg. fin, 4 starts), Mark Martin (29.0 in two starts last season), Jeff Burton (24.2 avg. fin, 0 laps led), Kevin Harvick (23.0 avg, 0 LL’s), and Matt Kenseth (16.3 avg., 1-Top 10, 0 LL’s). All of these stats date back to the beginning of the ’07 season. Interestingly, Martin used to be one of the series’ top road course aces, however he seems to have lost some of that edge from taking the ’07 & ’08 seasons to run part-time, skipping these events. Also, with as sharp as the Roush Racing Team seems to be at tracks like Michigan, they have proven far from a contender at Infineon and Watkins Glen. In fact, Carl Edwards, on his best days, seems to be the only driver capable of running out front at any given time.
While the places to pass and speeds at this track are limited, the dramatic track change and the storyline of “hired guns” taking on series regulars normally makes for an exciting race. The entire weekend got started with qualifying at 6:35 pm ET on Friday. Starting position at Infineon used to prove more critical, but strangely, the average starting spot of the winner in the last five years here has been an unimpressive 17.0. Happy Hour rank has been significantly more important, with an average rank of 6.2. The race is scheduled for 3:19 PM ET on TNT Sunday.
NASCAR: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 (1:00 PM ET, TNT)
2021-06-11
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series continues its summer tour with the first of two stops over the next eight weeks at Michigan International Speedway. The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 is slated for Sunday and a quick check of the odds board finds all of the usual top dogs expected to win. Jimmie Johnson is the official favorite at 7-2, with Kyle Busch next at 5-1, and both Jeff Gordon & Denny Hamlin the only other drivers in single digits at 8-1. Strangely, none of that quartet has won at Michigan since Jeff Gordon did so in 2001. In fact, he is the only one of them who has a win at this facility. Perhaps oddsmakers, or more importantly bettors, should take a closer look at drivers like Carl Edwards (20-1) Kurt Busch (10-1), or Matt Kenseth (15-1), more recent winners at MIS. Mark Martin (20-1), the defending champion of this race, could also be worth a shot.
The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 will be the first of two season races around the 2-mile oval in Brooklyn, Michigan. Considering that the other event will be just two short months from now, both of the races figure to have a big impact on the point standings as the series moves closer and closer to the cutoff point in the “Chase for the Cup”. Currently, Kevin Harvick (20-1) leads the standings by 19 points over Kyle Busch. The hot driver though is Denny Hamlin, who sits in third, 136 points back. Hamlin picked up his fourth win of the young season last week at Pocono. Again though, none of the three has ever won at Michigan and moreover, none has averaged any better than an average finish of 12.5 in the four COT races run at this track over the last two years. If there ever was a race where an upset winner could emerge this might be it. When you consider that Brian Vickers won in the most recent race here last August, the chances are even greater.
When looking at the potential contenders for Sunday, Carl Edwards is the top dog. He is at the top of the list in terms of career average finish (6.1), and average finish over the last two years (4.0). In his last four starts, he has won, scored three Top 5’s, and led 107 total laps. Matt Kenseth should also be given some serious consideration as well, as he is the only other driver with an average career MIS finish of less than 10th (9.9), and also has two Top 5 finishes in the last four races. Elsewhere, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Greg Biffle, and Jeff Gordon each also boast a pair Top 5 finishes in the COT. If you’ve noticed a pattern here, it’s that Roush Racing seems to have a good handle on what it takes to win at Michigan. You may have also noticed that the name of Jimmie Johnson has not been mentioned in the top finishing stats. That is because he has endured some bad luck at MIS of late, much like his recent 2010 season. Though he has led a dominant 356 laps in the last four races here, he has averaged a finish of 19.5 without a single Top 5.
So much of what happens nowadays in NASCAR hinges on which drivers are hot lately. As such, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin have to be considered contenders on Sunday. Between the three of them, they have won six of the last seven races overall. They are also three of the Top 5 in the season standings. Of those, Kyle has the best recent resume at Michigan, with an average finish of 12.8 in the COT and 48 laps led during that four-race span. Hamlin has done reasonably well throughout his career, with an average finish of 13.3 but just 5 total laps led in eight starts. Kurt has two career wins at MIS, but those are his only Top 5 finishes among an average of 20.3 in 18 starts.
Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile raceway known for its wide surface, which promotes three, and even sometimes four wide, racing. It is very similar to California Speedway, site of this season’s second race won by Jimmie Johnson, who held off the trio of Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin and Joey Logano. With this being the “sister-track”, expect all of those guys to be among the frontrunners at various times on Sunday.
Qualifying has proven important historically, with 57% of the modern era winners coming from the first two starting rows, however, seven of the last 10 winners, including Mark Martin last year (32nd), started outside the Top 10. In fact, Martin became the first driver to start worse than 28th and win. Practice in the COT era has been a huge factor, with the winner in the last four races averaging a rank of 2.75 in Happy Hour with three of the four ranking first or second. The green flag for the race is set to drop at 1:15 PM ET on Sunday.
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